Global Events Calendar [12-05-2008] - [16-05-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+08:00).

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Global Events Calendar [12-05-2008] - [16-05-2008]
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Monday [12-05-2008]
7:50am--------------JPY M2+CD Money Supply y/y
9:30am--------------AUD Home Loans m/m
9:30am--------------AUD NAB Business Confidence
11:00am-------------JPY BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks
1:00pm--------------JPY Economy Watchers Current Index
2:00pm--------------JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y
[Whole Day Event]---CHF Holiday: Whit Monday
4:00pm--------------EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m
4:30pm--------------GBP PPI Input m/m
4:30pm--------------GBP Trade Balance
4:30pm--------------GBP PPI Output m/m
8:30pm--------------CAD New Housing Price Index m/m
11:00pm-------------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Tuesday [13-05-2008]
6:45am---NZD FPI m/m
7:01am---GBP RICS House Price Balance
7:01am---GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
4:30pm---GBP CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP DCLG House Price Index y/y
4:30pm---GBP RPI y/y
6:10pm---USD Cleveland Fed President Pianalto Speaks
8:20pm---USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
8:30pm---USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Import Price Index m/m
10:00pm--USD Business Inventories m/m

Wednesday [14-05-2008]
1:30am---USD Dallas Fed President Fisher Speaks
7:50am---JPY CGPI y/y
7:50am---JPY Current Account
8:30am---AUD WMI Consumer Sentiment m/m
9:30am---AUD WPI q/q
2:40pm---EUR French CPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
4:30pm---GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30pm---GBP Unemployment Rate
5:00pm---EUR Industrial Production m/m
5:30pm---GBP BOE Inflation Report
8:30pm---USD Core CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD CPI m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [15-05-2008]
6:45am---NZD Retail Sales m/m
6:45am---NZD Core Retail Sales m/m
7:50am---JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m
8:00am---NZD Performance of Manufacturing Index
1:45pm---CHF Consumer Climate
2:00pm---EUR German GDP q/q (p)
2:00pm---EUR German CPI m/m (r)
2:45pm---EUR French GDP q/q (p)
5:00pm---CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
5:00pm---EUR Core CPI y/y
5:00pm---EUR GDP q/q (p)
5:00pm---EUR CPI y/y
6:30pm---AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
7:40pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30pm---CAD Manufacturing Shipments m/m
8:30pm---USD Empire State Business Conditions Index
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
9:00pm---USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
9:15pm---USD Capacity Utilization Rate
9:15pm---USD Industrial Production m/m
9:30pm---USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
10:00pm--USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
10:30pm--CAD BOC Spring Review

Friday [16-05-2008]
1:00am-----------USD NAHB Housing Market Index
6:45am-----------NZD PPI Input q/q
6:45am-----------NZD PPI Output q/q
7:50am-----------JPY GDP q/q (p)
7:50am-----------JPY GDP Deflator y/y (p)
12:30pm----------JPY Industrial Production m/m (r)
1:00pm-----------JPY Household Confidence
2:45pm-----------EUR French Nonfarm Employment q/q (p)
3:15pm-----------CHF Retail Sales y/y
4:00pm-----------EUR Italian Trade Balance
5:00pm-----------EUR Trade Balance
[Time Unknown]---AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle Speaks
8:30pm-----------CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
8:30pm-----------USD Building Permits
8:30pm-----------USD Housing Starts
10:00pm----------USD Consumer Sentiment (p)
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Global Events Calendar [05-05-2008] - [09-05-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+08:00).

Before we go on with the Global Events Calendar, there are a few things to take note of for the week to come.

Monday [05-05-2008]
1) JPY - [Whole Day Event]>Holiday: Children's Day
2) GBP - [Whole Day Event]>Holiday: May Day
3) USD - [10:00pm]>Fed Holds TAF Auction

Tuesday [06-05-2008]
1) JPY - [Whole Day Event]>Holiday: Greenery Day Observed
2) USD - [08:30am]>Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks.
3) AUD - [12:30pm]>Interest Rate Statement(*They are looking to hold)
4) GBP - [04:30pm]>Industrial Production

Thursday [08-05-2008]
1) NZD - [06:45am]>Jobless Rate
2) AUD - [09:30am]>Jobless Rate
3) CHF - [01:45pm]>Jobless Rate
4) EUR - [02:00pm]>German Trade Balance
5) GBP - [07:00pm]>Interest Rate Statement[*They are looking to hold]
6) USD - [08:30pm]>Jobless Claims

Friday [09-05-2008]
1) CAD - [07:00pm]>Jobless Rate
2) CAD - [08:30pm]>Trade Balance
3) USD - [08:30pm]>Trade Balance

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Global Events Calendar [05-05-2008] - [09-05-2008]
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Monday [05-05-2008]
6:45am--------------NZD Labor Cost Index q/q
7:30am--------------AUD Services PMI
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Holiday: Children's Day
8:30am--------------AUD TDMI Inflation Gauge m/m
9:30am--------------AUD House Price Index q/q
11:00am-------------NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index
[Whole Day Event]---GBP Holiday: May Day
4:30pm--------------EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
[Time Unknown]------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:50pm--------------CAD BOC Deputy Governor Jenkins Speaks
10:00pm-------------USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite
10:00pm-------------USD Fed Holds TAF Auction

Tuesday [06-05-2008]
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Holiday: Greenery Day Observed
8:30am--------------USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
9:30am--------------AUD Trade Balance
12:30pm-------------AUD Interest Rate Statement
1:45pm--------------CHF CPI m/m
4:00pm--------------EUR Services PMI (r)
4:30pm--------------GBP Services PMI
5:00pm--------------EUR PPI m/m
8:30pm--------------CAD Building Permits m/m
10:00pm-------------CAD Ivey PMI

Wednesday [07-05-2008]
7:01am---GBP Consumer Confidence Index
7:30am---AUD Construction PMI
2:45pm---EUR French Government Budget Balance
2:45pm---EUR French Trade Balance
4:30pm---GBP Industrial Production m/m
4:30pm---GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
5:00pm---EUR Retail Sales m/m
5:30pm---GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y
6:00pm---EUR German Factory Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Nonfarm Productivity q/q (p)
8:30pm---USD Unit Labor Costs q/q (p)
8:45pm---USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
10:00pm--USD Pending Home Sales m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [08-06-2008]
3:00am---USD Consumer Credit m/m
6:45am---NZD Unemployment Rate
6:45am---NZD Employment Change q/q
7:01am---USD NIESR GDP Estimate
9:30am---AUD Employment Change
9:30am---AUD Unemployment Rate
1:45pm---CHF Unemployment Rate
2:00pm---EUR German Trade Balance
6:00pm---EUR German Industrial Production m/m
7:00pm---GBP Interest Rate Statement
7:45pm---EUR Minimum Bid Rate
8:15pm---CAD Housing Starts
8:30pm---EUR ECB Press Conference
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD Wholesale Inventories m/m

Friday [09-05-2008]
9:30am---AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
1:00pm---JPY Leading Index m/m
2:45pm---EUR French Industrial Production m/m
7:00pm---CAD Employment Change
7:00pm---CAD Unemployment Rate
8:30pm---CAD Trade Balance
8:30pm---USD Trade Balance
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Fortune Telling

Hello guys, something amusing: Here's a screen shot of the Saxo Chart, showing EURUSD plummeting down. Might happen (but VERY very unlikely to be a 1 day thing). Seems that SAXO might be going into fortune telling :)

Daily Market Update by Daily FX (24th April 2008)

Source: Daily FX

USD
After hitting a record low against the Euro on Tuesday, there has been little follow through selling in the US dollar, leaving many traders wondering whether this may be a pause before further losses or a potential bottom. Although we are long term dollar bears, the break of 1.60 is far from impressive. This indicates that there isn't much speculative interest in taking the Euro higher in the near term, especially as economic data and official comments start to turn against the Euro and in favor of the US dollar. Earlier this week we had better than expected US housing market numbers. We would not be surprised to also see a recovery in new home sales. Even though US durable goods will be pressured by the sales of furniture and electronics, Boeing's incredibly solid end of quarter earnings and their expectations of another strong year suggests that sales of non-defense aircraft could be firm. As for the Eurozone, we expect German business confidence to deteriorate materially (discussed in Euro section). Fed fund futures are currently pricing in an 82 percent chance of a quarter point rate cut next week with the remaining 18 percent probability in favor of no rate cut at all. This is a sharp departure from just a week ago when the market was pricing in a 76 percent chance of a 25bp cut and a 24 percent chance of a 50bp cut. The only reason for this dramatic shift in expectations is the increased inflationary pressures. A week ago, oil prices were trading at $113 a barrel and yesterday it hit an intraday high of $119.90 a barrel. The dollar should continue to recover for the rest of the week, but the party may end the following week when we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and non-farm payrolls due for release. We believe that the market may be under pricing the degree of Fed rate cuts because the problems in the US economy are far from over. Non-farm payrolls should continue to drop while consumer spending will probably slow, leaving the Federal Reserve with a lot of work ahead of them.

EUR
The Euro has failed to extend its gains beyond 1.60 and we believe that another day of losses may be in store for the single currency. More signs of weakness in the Eurozone economy are beginning to reveal themselves. Even though service sector PMI improved in the month of April, manufacturing sector PMI deteriorated. This suggests that German business confidence could have also decreased this month as indicated by the ZEW survey. A little watched report called the Belgium Business Sentiment Index also tends to have a strong correlation with German IFO (chart). The index fell to a 2.5 year low in the month of April with the drop being the steepest on record. A large decline in German business confidence would be exactly what the Euro needs for a more meaningful turn. Meanwhile ECB member Noyer backtracked the comments that he made yesterday, which drove the EUR/USD to a record high. He said that the market misinterpreted his words and that the ECB is not looking to hike interest rates. For the time being, don't expect them to lower rates either.

GBP
Over the next 2 trading days, the big action should be in the British pound. We are expecting retail sales tomorrow followed by the first quarter GDP report on Friday. The deterioration in the UK housing market and the UK economy in general will weigh on consumer spending, while the GDP numbers may be partially dependent upon how bad retail sales fared in March. Unfortunately the minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting failed to provide any clarity on how the central bank may vote at the next meeting because the committee was split 3 ways. Six of the nine members voted in favor of the 25bp rate cut, 2 members voted for no cut at all while 1 member voted for a 50bp cut. As a group, they were concerned about everything from growth to credit markets to inflation. Looking ahead, the only things that will shed more light on where the BoE stands would be tomorrow's retail sales report.

JPY
The Japanese Yen crosses were mixed today with USD/JPY rallying but many of the other yen crosses dipping despite a 42 point rally in the Dow. After breaking higher last Friday, there has not been much follow through in US equities, which leaves many traders nervous about whether risk appetite is really here to stay. The latest merchandise trade balance report was weaker than expected, but the surplus still increased last month. The strength of the Japanese Yen is beginning to take a toll on exports, particularly in the electronic components and machinery sector. Imports on the other hand rose 11 percent, mainly due to the rise in oil prices.

Daily Market Update by Daily FX (23rd April 2008)

Source: Daily FX

USD
It has been a record breaking day in the financial markets with the US dollar falling to a new all-time low and oil prices hitting a record high above $119 a barrel. When it comes to oil and the US dollar, it is difficult to determine which is the primary driver because the dollar's weakness pushes oil prices higher while oil prices hurts the outlook for the US economy. Although it can be argued that higher crude prices are inflationary, it is not that simple because the Federal Reserve cannot raise interest rates to combat inflation. With the market already pricing in only a quarter point rate cut, to forgo a rate cut completely would send a message to the markets that the Federal Reserve is not quite ready for. At this time, the Fed's bigger problem is the pressure that $5 gas prices may have on consumer spending and corporate profitability. The pocketbooks of US consumers are getting pinched by the day as prices rise globally. This morning, there have been reports that Mattel is raising toy prices and even the MTA (Metropolitan Transportation Authority) here in NY is planning to raise the price of alcohol, soda and snacks for the first the first time in 4 years; the price hike of 25 percent is by no means shallow. Housing market numbers were released this morning and they were not as bad as analysts had feared. The absolute number of existing homes sold was slightly more than expected even though the drop on a percentage basis was greater. House prices actually ticked higher which is a relief for the housing market even though that relief will probably be temporary. California just reported the highest level of mortgage defaults in 15 years, reflecting the severity of the problems in the US real estate market. Expect the US economy to get worse before it gets better.

EUR
The fourth time is the charm for the Euro as it finally pierces the 1.60 level against the US dollar. Despite slightly better than expected existing home sales in the US, a rebound in house prices, and news that the German Banking Association bailed out Duesseldorfer Hypothekenbank AG after a string of mortgage losses, the market refuses to give up its voracious appetite for Euros. This continual rise in inflationary pressures raises the risk of a rate hike from the European Central Bank. This morning, ECB member Noyer said that the central bank will do what is needed to control inflation, including raising interest rates. Although he tried to temper that comment by saying that rates are currently appropriate, the seed has been planted. Tomorrow's service and manufacturing PMI numbers will shed more light on how well the Eurozone economy is holding up given current market conditions. Interestingly enough, there are not as many option barriers according to the volatility smile at 1.60 as there was at 1.50. This suggests that extension may not be as high. When the Euro broke 1.50 it rallied another 144 pips on the very same day and then added 300 pips over the next few weeks with virtually no retracement. Therefore the power of the move above 1.60 will not be as strong as the move above 1.50. In fact, 1.60 could even be a near term top.

GBP
Fresh from yesterday's trading loss, on the back of rising criticism about BoE's GBP50 billion swap, the British Pound regained posture against the US Dollar, rallying by 150 pips. In light of the Royal Bank of Scotland's $24 billion sell of shares and the BoE's attempt to increase liquidity in order to boost the ailing housing market, speculations run rampant that the worst is yet to come for the once resilient UK economy. Today, Finance Minister Alistair Darling is set to meet with key mortgage lenders, in hopes of convincing them to cut costs of home loans and find ways of helping people refinance their mortgages. Investors eagerly await this month's central bank minutes set to release on Wednesday, in hopes of finding a silver lining, in terms of a future rate cut. As the economy trudges along, it remains to be seen what sorts of surprises the government pulls out of its black hat, but it can be assumed that it will be awhile before the UK economy start chugging smoothly.

JPY
Fresh from yesterday's trading loss, on the back of rising criticism about BoE's The Japanese Yen continued its lead against the US Dollar, as investors ushered in positive economic release from the world's second largest economy. Supermarket sales figures rose for the second month in a row, due to rising food costs, causing investors to remain optimistic about future growth prospects. With Democratic Party Japan pushing for higher minimum wages, and the retention of the gasoline tax cut beyond April, expect consumer spending to recover, which could help Japan revive at a quicker pace than expected. Looking ahead, Merchandise Trade Balance and CPI figures should help the Yen gain against major currencies.

Last minute addition to the Global Events Calendar...

Hello everyone,

[21-04-2008], at 4:00pm (Singapore Time). This is a last minute addition to the Global Events Calendar.

GBP - [BOE Special Liquidity Announced]
*Description - The Bank of England (BOE) will issue a statement regarding their "Special Liquidity Scheme" designed to allow banks to swap temporarily their high quality mortgage-backed and other securities for UK Treasury Bills.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Analysis on 4 Majors

I had done the weekly analysis on the 4 majors based on my basic knowledge about Forex.
If you made money for the week based on my analysis, no need to thank me cos you are skilled.
However if you lost because of me, so be it, you are suay, furthermore I am not bothered with your loss.
Remember to look out for major news releases.
Trade with care and criteria.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is moving in a closing wedge in weekly, daily, hourly.
the pair made a upward move last week and showed a loss of momentum last fri.

Weekly Resistance @ 2.0069, 2.0204, 2.0398
Weekly Support @ 1.9586, 1.9294
Daily Resistance @ 1.9998, 2.0062, 2.0221
Daily Support @ 1.9730, 1.9602
Hourly Resistance@ 1.9962, 1.9998
Hourly Support @ 1.9879, 1.9765

USDCHF

On weekly, USDCHF is moving in a downtrend channel for the past few weeks.
On Daily, the pair is forming a closing wedge.
On hourly, the pair made a bump and run on thursday, and another bump and run of friday.
Weekly Resistance @1.0282, 1.0542
Weekly Support @ 0.9925, 0.9916
Daily Resistance @ 1.0282, 1.0345
Daily Support @ 0.9936, 0.9860
Hourly Resistance @ 1.0245, 1.0282
Hourly Support @ 1.0093, 1.0040

USDJPY

USDJPY has been moving in a downward channel for past weeks.
Last fri, the pair made a strong up move and retraced.
Weekly Resistance @ 104.63, 108.23
Weekly Support @ 100.72, 99.83
Daily Resistance @ 104.63
Daily Support @ 102.25, 100.66
Hourly Resistance @ 104.62
Hourly Support @ 102.83, 102.25