Global Events Calendar [21-07-2008] - [25-07-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+8:00).
**ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of information.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [21-07-2008] - [25-07-2008]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [21-07-2008]
6:45am--------------NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Holiday: Marine Day
7:01am--------------GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m
9:30am--------------AUD PPI q/q
9:30am--------------AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
11:00am-------------NZD Credit Card Spending y/y
3:15pm--------------CHF PPI m/m
10:00pm-------------USD Leading Index m/m

Tuesday [22-07-2008]
7:50am---JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m
2:15pm---CHF Trade Balance
4:45pm---GBP BOE Governor King Speaks
8:10pm---USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks
8:30pm---CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---CAD Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
10:00pm--USD House Price Index m/m
10:00pm--USD Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday [23-07-2008]
9:30am---AUD CPI q/q
9:30am---AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
2:45pm---EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
4:00pm---EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
4:30pm---GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30pm---GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
5:00pm---EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
6:00pm---GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
7:00pm---CAD Core CPI m/m
7:00pm---CAD CPI m/m
10:35pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [24-07-2008]
2:00am---USD Beige Book
5:00am---NZD Monetary Policy Statement
5:00am---NZD Official Cash Rate
7:50am---JPY Trade Balance
3:00pm---EUR French Manufacturing PMI (p)
3:00pm---EUR French Services PMI (p)
3:30pm---EUR German Manufacturing PMI (p)
3:30pm---EUR German Services PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR Current Account
4:00pm---EUR Services PMI (p)
4:30pm---GBP Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD Existing Home Sales
10:00pm--USD FOMC Member Geithner Speaks
10:35pm--USD Natural Gas Storage

Friday [25-07-2008]
1:00am---GBP MPC Member Bean Speaks
7:30am---JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y
7:30am---JPY National Core CPI y/y
7:50am---JPY CSPI y/y
4:00pm---EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
4:30pm---GBP Prelim GDP q/q
4:30pm---GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
8:30pm---USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
9:55pm---USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
10:00pm--USD New Home Sales
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fortune Teller Game Cancelled

Dear Commenciante Brothers, the fortune teller game shall not continue as there are not enough fortune tellers available. Most of them are busy making money. =D

Trade Safely
J

Global Events Calendar [30-06-2008] - [04-07-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (+08:00GMT).
**ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of information.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [30-06-2008] - [04-07-2008]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [30-06-2008]
6:45am---NZD Building Consents m/m
7:01am---GBP Consumer Confidence
7:15am---JPY Manufacturing PMI
8:30am---AUD TDMI Inflation Gauge m/m
9:30am---AUD Private Sector Credit m/m
11:00am--NZD Business Confidence
1:00pm---JPY Housing Starts y/y
4:30pm---GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
4:30pm---GBP Mortgage Approvals
4:30pm---GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
5:00pm---EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y
5:00pm---EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m
8:30pm---CAD GDP m/m
9:45pm---USD Chicago PMI

Tuesday [01-07-2008]
7:30am--------------AUD Manufacturing PMI
7:50am--------------JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
7:50am--------------JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index
9:30am--------------JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y
12:30pm-------------AUD Cash Rate
12:30pm-------------AUD RBA Rate Statement
2:00pm--------------EUR German Retail Sales m/m
2:00pm--------------GBP Nationwide House Prices m/m
2:30pm--------------AUD Index of Commodity Prices y/y
3:30pm--------------CHF SVME PMI
3:55pm--------------EUR German Unemployment Change
4:00pm--------------EUR Manufacturing PMI (r)
4:30pm--------------GBP Manufacturing PMI
5:00pm--------------EUR Unemployment Rate
[Whole Day Event]---CAD Holiday: Canada Day
10:00pm-------------USD ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00pm-------------USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
10:00pm-------------USD Construction Spending m/m

Wednesday [02-07-2008]
[Time Unknown]---USD Domestic Vehicle Sales
7:50am-----------JPY Monetary Base y/y
9:30am-----------AUD Building Approvals m/m
9:30am-----------AUD Retail Sales m/m
3:15pm-----------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:30pm-----------GBP Construction PMI
4:30pm-----------GBP Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q
5:00pm-----------EUR PPI m/m
7:30pm-----------USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y
8:15pm-----------USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
10:00pm----------USD Factory Orders m/m
10:30pm----------USD Crude Oil Inventories
11:00pm----------USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks

Thursday [03-07-2008]
12:00am----------USD FOMC Member Mishkin Speaks
7:30am-----------AUD Services PMI
9:30am-----------AUD Trade Balance
11:00am----------NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index
1:45pm-----------CHF CPI m/m
[Time Unknown]---GBP Halifax HPI m/m
4:00pm-----------EUR Services PMI (p)
4:30pm-----------GBP Services PMI
4:30pm-----------GBP Credit Conditions Survey
5:00pm-----------CHF SNB Monetary Policy Report
5:00pm-----------EUR Retail Sales m/m
7:45pm-----------EUR Minimum Bid Rate
8:30pm-----------EUR ECB Press Conference
8:30pm-----------USD Nonfarm Employment Change
8:30pm-----------USD Unemployment Rate
8:30pm-----------USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
8:30pm-----------USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm----------USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite
10:30pm----------USD Natural Gas Storage

Friday [04-07-2008]
1:00pm--------------JPY Leading Economic Index
2:45pm--------------EUR French Government Budget Balance
6:00pm--------------EUR German Factory Orders m/m
[Whole Day Event]---USD Holiday: Independence Day

[Additional for the week]
Saturday [05-07-2008]
6:00pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Global Events Calendar [09-06-2008] - [13-06-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+08:00).
**ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of information.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [09-06-2008] - [13-06-2008]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [09-06-2008]
7:50am---JPY M2+CD Money Supply y/y
1:00pm---JPY Leading Index m/m
1:45pm---CHF Unemployment Rate
2:00pm---EUR German Trade Balance
3:00pm---JPY Economy Watchers Current Index
4:30pm---EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
4:30pm---GBP PPI Input m/m
4:30pm---GBP PPI Output m/m
8:15pm---CAD Housing Starts
10:00pm--CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks
10:00pm--USD Pending Home Sales m/m

Tuesday [10-06-2008]
12:15am--USD New York Fed President Geithner Speaks
12:30am--EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
7:01am---GBP RICS House Price Balance
7:01am---GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
7:50am---JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m
8:15am---USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
9:30am---AUD Home Loans m/m
9:30am---AUD NAB Business Confidence
2:00pm---EUR German WPI m/m
2:00pm---JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y
2:45pm---EUR French Industrial Production m/m
4:00pm---EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m
4:30pm---GBP Industrial Production m/m
4:30pm---GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
4:30pm---GBP DCLG House Price Index y/y
7:00pm---GBP BOE Governor King Speaks
8:00pm---USD Dallas Fed President Fisher Speaks
8:30pm---CAD Trade Balance
8:30pm---USD Trade Balance
9:00pm---CAD BOC Rate Statement
9:00pm---CAD Overnight Rate
10:00pm--USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Wednesday [11-06-2008]
6:45am---NZD Merchandise Terms of Trade q/q
7:01am---GBP NIESR GDP Estimate
7:50am---JPY Final GDP q/q
7:50am---JPY CGPI y/y
7:50am---JPY Current Account
7:50am---JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y
8:30am---AUD WMI Consumer Sentiment m/m
2:45pm---EUR French CPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30pm---GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
4:30pm---GBP Trade Balance
4:30pm---GBP Unemployment Rate
8:30pm---CAD Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate
8:30pm---CAD New Housing Price Index m/m
10:35pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories
11:30pm--USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks

Thursday [12-06-2008]
12:15am--USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
2:00am---USD Beige Book
6:45am---NZD FPI m/m
8:00am---NZD Performance of Manufacturing Index
9:30am---AUD Employment Change
9:30am---AUD Unemployment Rate
2:45pm---EUR French Final Employment Change q/q
4:30pm---GBP BOE Inflation Attitudes
5:00pm---EUR ECB Bulletin
5:00pm---EUR Industrial Production m/m
6:00pm---CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
8:30pm---USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Import Price Index m/m
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD Business Inventories m/m
10:35pm--USD Natural Gas Storage
11:30pm--USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Friday [13-06-2008]
6:45am----------NZD Core Retail Sales m/m
6:45am----------NZD Retail Sales m/m
[Time Unknown]--JPY Overnight Call Rate
11:10am---------AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
12:30pm---------JPY Industrial Production m/m (r)
1:00pm----------JPY Household Confidence
2:00pm----------EUR German CPI m/m (r)
2:00pm----------JPY BOJ Monthly Report
[Time Unknown]--JPY BOJ Press Conference
5:00pm----------EUR Labor Cost Index y/y
6:00pm----------EUR Employment Change q/q
8:30pm----------CAD Manufacturing Shipments m/m
8:30pm----------USD Core CPI m/m
8:30pm----------USD CPI m/m
9:55pm----------USD Prelim Michigan Sentiment
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Are YOU a fortune teller?

Hi Commenciante brothers,

A new fortune telling game has started! Easy to play and win great prizes! (well not really great but better then nothing)

Rules:
1) We will be predicting the 4 majors (USDJPY, USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD)
2) All you need to do is to predict whether the following pairs are going to be upclose or downclose for the week.
3) If you include your analysis, points will be doubled.
4) Everyone starts off with 20 points every month. Correct predictions for each pair are worth 1 points each. 1 additional point per pair if analysis is included and prediction is correct.
5) Each wrong prediction or non-entry will result in a deduction of 1 point per pair. Predictions with analysis will not have any deductions.
6) Each entry has to be submitted by every Sunday at 23:59 HRS. Contestents who have a good reason to miss the week (like going off to Japan) shall be waived of the deduction penalty.
7) Scores will be concluded at the end of every month (tentatively) and the winner shall receive a treat from the rest of the contestants during one of our FOMC meeting.
8) To register for this game, please leave your name under the comments. You can quit this game anytime, just leave a comment.

Global Events Calendar [02-06-2008] - [06-06-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+08:00).
**ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of information.

Hello everyone,

A few things to take note of this week.

Thursday [05--06-2008]
-(1) GBP will be having their interest rate statement at 7:00pm. They are looking to hold.
-(2) EUR will be having their interest rate statement at 7:45pm. They are also looking to hold.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [02-06-2008] - [06-06-2008]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [02-06-2008]
[Whole Day Event]---Day NZD Holiday: Queen's Birthday
7:30am---AUD Manufacturing PMI
8:30am---AUD TDMI Inflation Gauge m/m
9:30am---AUD Retail Sales m/m
9:30am---AUD Company Gross Operating Profits q/q
9:30am---JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y
1:45pm---CHF GDP q/q
2:30pm---AUD Index of Commodity Prices y/y
3:30pm---CHF SVME PMI
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI (r)
4:30pm---GBP Manufacturing PMI
4:30pm---GBP Mortgage Approvals
4:30pm---GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m
9:30pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
10:00pm--USD ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00pm--USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
10:00pm--USD Construction Spending m/m

Tuesday [03-06-2008]
7:50am-----------JPY Monetary Base y/y
9:30am-----------AUD Building Approvals m/m
9:30am-----------AUD Current Account
12:30pm----------AUD RBA Rate Statement
12:30pm----------AUD Cash Rate
1:45pm-----------CHF CPI m/m
[Time Unknown]---GBP Halifax House Price Index m/m
4:30pm-----------GBP Construction PMI
5:00pm-----------EUR PPI m/m
5:00pm-----------EUR Revised GDP q/q
9:00pm-----------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
9:00pm-----------JPY BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks
9:00pm-----------USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
10:00pm----------USD Factory Orders m/m

Wednesday [04-06-2008]
[Time Unknown]---USD Domestic Vehicle Sales
7:01am-----------GBP Consumer Confidence Index
7:30am-----------AUD Services PMI
7:50am-----------JPY Capital Spending q/q
9:30am-----------AUD GDP q/q
11:00am----------NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index
3:30pm-----------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:00pm-----------EUR Services PMI (r)
4:30pm-----------GBP Services PMI
5:00pm-----------EUR Retail Sales m/m
5:30pm-----------GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y
7:30pm-----------USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y
8:15pm-----------USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
8:30pm-----------USD Nonfarm Productivity q/q (r)
8:30pm-----------USD Unit Labor Costs q/q (r)
10:00pm----------USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite
10:30pm----------USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [05-06-2008]
2:45am-----------USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
5:00am-----------NZD Monetary Policy Statement
5:00am-----------NZD Official Cash Rate
9:30am-----------AUD Trade Balance
6:00pm-----------EUR German Factory Orders m/m
[Time Unknown]---GBP MPC Rate Statement
7:00pm-----------GBP Official Bank Rate
7:45pm-----------EUR Minimum Bid Rate
8:30pm-----------CAD Building Permits m/m
8:30pm-----------EUR ECB Press Conference
8:30pm-----------USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm----------CAD Ivey PMI
10:30pm----------USD Natural Gas Storage

Friday [06-06-2008]
12:00am--USD Philadelphia Fed President Plosser Speaks
7:30am---AUD Construction PMI
2:45pm---EUR French Government Budget Balance
2:45pm---EUR French Trade Balance
5:00pm---CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
6:00pm---EUR German Industrial Production m/m
7:00pm---CAD Employment Change
7:00pm---CAD Unemployment Rate
8:30pm---USD Nonfarm Employment Change
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Rate
8:30pm---USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
8:45pm---USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
10:00pm--USD Wholesale Inventories m/m

[After Friday's Midnight]
3:00am---USD Consumer Credit m/m
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This week's sensitive price for [26-05-2008] - [30-05-2008]...

Hello everyone,

This week's sensitive price are as follow:

1) EUR/USD >>> 1.5714

2) GBP/USD >>> 1.9729

3) EUR/GBP >>> 0.7972

4) USD/JPY >>> 103.43

5) USD/CHF >>> 1.0315

6) EUR/JPY >>> 162.72

7) GBP/JPY >>> 204.45

8) NZD/JPY >>> 80.87

9) AUD/USD >>> 0.9585

10) USD/CAD >>> 0.9890

Peace and trade safely everyone...

USD/CAD - This Week's Technical Opportunity [26-05-2008] - [30-05-2008]

Source: DailyFX.com

The oil ‘crisis’ is dominating financial headlines, business shows, and even congress’ agenda. When the price of a commodity commands this level of publicity, the probability of a sharp reversal is heightened. As a currency trader, one way to speculate on an oil reversal is with the USDCAD. What’s more, risk is well defined.



This is a longer term look at the decline from the 2002 top near 1.60. The drop is in 7 waves (to this point), and could be complete as a double zigzag correction. If this pattern holds, then a multi-year low is in place at .9055 and the USDCAD is headed much higher in the coming months. A word of caution though; there is an alternate bearish pattern that holds just as much weight and allows for a new low (below .9055) before a major low is considered in place. For bulls though, risk is low. We’ll address this in shorter term charts.



The break of a trendline a few weeks ago is worrisome but as long as price is above .9710 (keeping a series of higher lows intact), a bullish argument can be made. A drop below .9710 will either lead to a drop below .9055 (and final low) quickly or complete wave B of a triangle. In the case of the latter, the USDCAD would trade in a range for probably the rest of the year. In summary, a drop below .9710 warrants a bearish bias. Even in the case of the triangle, the pair likely drops into the .9300 area to complete wave B.



This is the chart that we have been showing in the technicals for some time and illustrates why we have favored the bull side. We are treating the advance from .9710 to 1.0324 as wave 1 (probably of a larger C wave) of a bull cycle. The slow drop from 1.0324 has all the earmarks of a correction; time consuming and consisting of 3 wave movements. The bullish line in the sand is .9710. With price so close to there, reward/risk is heavily skewed in favor of bulls. The minimum objective is above 1.0324.

The U.S. dollar is at key technical levels

Source: Forexnews.com

The economy in the United States stays vulnerable, mostly supported by the international trade. Consolidation, rather than growth, could the be scenario of the next months/years, as the global credit bubble is fading away. The U.S. dollar, in the mean time, reached an important short term top against major currencies.

Consumes to decline further in the U.S.
Lower employment, housing declines and high oil prices might be stronger than the coming fiscal stimulus. Americans are pessimistic about the present and future state of the economy, while inflation is expected to pick up substantially in the coming months. Consequently, consumes should retreat further, although the fiscal package might give a brief boost to sells over the Summer.

The preliminary report of the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index slumped 3.1 points to 59.5 (-1.5 expected), the worst numbers in almost thirty years. Retail sales declined 0.2% in April from March’s increase of 0.2%. Consumption has been almost flat so far with motor vehicles and parts showing the largest losses. Excluding the autos component, retail sales moved up 0.5% (+0.2% expected).

In reality, latest housing data was better than expected, but results should be observed over a larger period of time, since starts are down almost 30% compared to one year ago. In April, housing starts jumped 8.2%, the strongest move in more than two years, while permits increased 4.9%. Starts were supported by the construction of multi-family homes, as single-family houses declined to the lowest level in seventeen years.

Manufacturing production fading locally
A weak domestic market is subduing manufacturing production in the United States. In April, industrial production slid 0.7% (-0.3% expected). Capacity utilization declined to the lowest level of the past three years at 79.7%. Manufacturing production is very weak locally and moved down 0.8%, after remaining flat in March and falling 0.7% in February. Motor vehicles and part production slumped more than 8.0%. Finally, business equipment production, an indicator of capital spending, decreased 1.1% versus March’s up move of 0.7%.

Despite the economy clearly moderating, the Federal Reserve should implement a “wait and watch” approach supported by milder inflation data. Starting in June or the subsequent meeting will depend on the coming economic numbers. In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose only 0.2% month over month and declined 3.9% from 4.% on an annual basis. The core index fell instead to 2.3% from 2.4%.

A strong GDP in Europe. Will it last?
As more current data is producing weaker numbers in Europe, growth has been quite good during the first three months of the year. In the first quarter of 2008, the Euro zone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed a 0.7% growth month on month (+0.5% expected), above the previous 0.4%, and 2.2% year on year. Euro zone industrial production declined instead 0.2% month on month (-0.1% expected) in March, versus February’s +0.3%, and is now 2.0% year on year (+2.4% expected).

German and France have been two important assets to the European economy. In fact, in the first quarter of this year, the economy grew 1.5% (+0.7% expected) in Germany compared the 0.3% registered in the last quarter of 2007. Annually, it has been 2.6% (+1.7% expected). In France, growth has been 0.6% month on month (+0.4% expected) and 2.2% year on year (+1.9% expected).

Inflation is ECB’s main target
Economic expansion is expected to decline in the second part of 2008, since many emerging markets should surrender to the global slowdown. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) will not change its policy for now, although inflation receded a bit lately. In fact, Euro zone inflation stays strong at 3.0%, but core inflation declined to 1.6%, the lowest level of the past two years.

In April, German Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.2% month on month, after increasing 0.3% in March, and is 2.4% annually versus 3.1%. German inflation represents almost 30% of the total monetary union inflation rate. In France, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in April on the top of March’s 0.8%. Annually, CPI is now 3.0% from 3.2%.

USD/JPY targeting support again

EUR/USD found an important support on the lower Bollinger band at 1.53. The short term trend is neutral. A move above 1.5690 would lift the European currency to 1.5780, 1.5850. A decline below 1.5170 would instead target 1.5050.

GBP/USD rebounded from the important support a 1.9400/1.9500. The next target could eventually be 1.9650, eventually 1.9750. Only a move below 1.9320 would eventually target 1.9250, 1.9160.

USD/JPY continues to consolidate between 106 and 102. The market appears to be targeting again 103.00/102.60. A move below 101.40 could eventually let prices to slip to 100.40, 100.00. A move above 106.30 would instead lift the USD to 107.00.

No Signs Of A Bottom In The US Housing Recession From Existing Sales

Source: Daily FX

The FOMC's remarks that there have been few signs that the housing market has bottomed out were given weight with today's existing home sales report. According to the National Association of Realtors report, purchases of previously owned homes slipped 1.0 percent to a 4.89 million annual pace. For a market driver, this data was better than economists forcasts for a 1.6 percent drop to 4.85 million homes; yet this contraction still marks the ninth contraction for the past year and a new low for records gong back to 1999. Looking into the details of the report, the foundation of the market in single family homes was faring just as badly as the headline number would suggest. Single family home sales slipped 0.5 percent to a 4.34 million clip, while supplies surged to a 10.7 months supply from 9.6 months in March. On the other hand, while sales and inventories extend the recession, the ongoing decline in prices brings the market closer to a buyers market. The median price of sales through the month dropped 8.0 percent from last year, though there was a second consecutive increase on a monthly basis. Going forward, existing home sales will be the bellweather for gauging the eventual turn in the housing market as sales of existing homes will preceed a rebound in price and construction activity.

Welcome BACK!!!

Yo J!!!

Hope your meditation was fruitful :) Welcome back to the trading arena.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Warmest Regards,
Ash

Back!

Hi everyone! Sorry I have not been around this weekend as I went to the mountains to have a meditation session! I'll do a market analysis probably tomorrow or wednesday. Till then, have fun trading!

PS Just closed my position with 1pip gain when AUD/USD went historic high.

This week's sensitive price for [19-05-2008] - [23-05-2008]...

Hello everyone,

This week's sensitive price are as follow:

1) EUR/USD >>> 1.5535

2) GBP/USD >>> 1.9533

3) EUR/GBP >>> 0.7946

4) USD/JPY >>> 104.06

5) USD/CHF >>> 1.0490

6) EUR/JPY >>> 161.53

7) GBP/JPY >>> 203.17

8) NZD/JPY >>> 79.99

9) AUD/USD >>> 0.9483

10) USD/CAD >>> 1.0009

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Global Events Calendar [19-05-2008] - [23-05-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [19-05-2008] - [23-05-2008]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [19-05-2008]
7:01am--------------GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m
[Whole Day Event]---CAD Holiday: Victoria Day
10:00pm-------------USD Fed Holds TAF Auction
10:00pm-------------USD Leading Index m/m

Tuesday [20-05-2008]
6:45am-----------NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m
7:50am-----------JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m
9:30am-----------AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
[Time Unknown]---JPY Overnight Call Rate
2:00pm-----------EUR German PPI m/m
2:00pm-----------JPY BOJ Monthly Report
[Time Unknown]---JPY BOJ Press Conference
3:15pm-----------CHF PPI m/m
5:00pm-----------EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm-----------EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
8:30pm-----------CAD Foreign Securities Purchases
8:30pm-----------CAD Wholesale Sales m/m
8:30pm-----------USD PPI m/m
8:30pm-----------USD Core PPI m/m
9:00pm-----------USD Fed Vice Chairman Kohn Speaks
9:00pm-----------USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
10:00pm----------USD Fed Publishes TAF Summary

Wednesday [21-05-2008]
8:30am---AUD WMI Consumer Sentiment m/m
9:30am---AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
11:00am--NZD Credit Card Spending y/y
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index
4:30pm---GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30pm---GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
4:30pm---GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
5:00pm---CHF ZEW Expectations
7:00pm---CAD Core CPI m/m
7:00pm---CAD CPI m/m
8:30pm---CAD Leading Indicators m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [22-05-2008]
1:00am--------------USD Fed Governor Warsh Speaks
2:00am--------------USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
7:50am--------------JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m
7:50am--------------JPY Trade Balance
10:00am-------------NZD NZ Annual Budget
[Whole Day Event]---EUR Holiday: Corpus Christi Day
4:00pm--------------EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
4:30pm--------------GBP Retail Sales m/m
4:30pm--------------GBP Business Investment q/q (p)
5:00pm--------------EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
6:00pm--------------GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
8:30pm--------------CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm--------------CAD Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm--------------USD Unemployment Claims
9:00pm--------------USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
10:00pm-------------USD House Price Index m/m
10:30pm-------------USD Natural Gas Storage

Friday [23-05-2008]
1:20am---CAD BOC Governor Carney Speaks
7:50am---JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
2:15pm---CHF Trade Balance
2:45pm---EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
3:30pm---EUR German Manufacturing PMI (p)
3:30pm---EUR German Services PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR Services PMI (p)
4:30pm---GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q
4:30pm---GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
5:00pm---EUR Italian GDP q/q
10:00pm--USD Existing Home Sales
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Global Events Calendar [12-05-2008] - [16-05-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+08:00).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [12-05-2008] - [16-05-2008]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [12-05-2008]
7:50am--------------JPY M2+CD Money Supply y/y
9:30am--------------AUD Home Loans m/m
9:30am--------------AUD NAB Business Confidence
11:00am-------------JPY BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks
1:00pm--------------JPY Economy Watchers Current Index
2:00pm--------------JPY Machine Tool Orders y/y
[Whole Day Event]---CHF Holiday: Whit Monday
4:00pm--------------EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m
4:30pm--------------GBP PPI Input m/m
4:30pm--------------GBP Trade Balance
4:30pm--------------GBP PPI Output m/m
8:30pm--------------CAD New Housing Price Index m/m
11:00pm-------------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Tuesday [13-05-2008]
6:45am---NZD FPI m/m
7:01am---GBP RICS House Price Balance
7:01am---GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
4:30pm---GBP CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP DCLG House Price Index y/y
4:30pm---GBP RPI y/y
6:10pm---USD Cleveland Fed President Pianalto Speaks
8:20pm---USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
8:30pm---USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Import Price Index m/m
10:00pm--USD Business Inventories m/m

Wednesday [14-05-2008]
1:30am---USD Dallas Fed President Fisher Speaks
7:50am---JPY CGPI y/y
7:50am---JPY Current Account
8:30am---AUD WMI Consumer Sentiment m/m
9:30am---AUD WPI q/q
2:40pm---EUR French CPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
4:30pm---GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30pm---GBP Unemployment Rate
5:00pm---EUR Industrial Production m/m
5:30pm---GBP BOE Inflation Report
8:30pm---USD Core CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD CPI m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [15-05-2008]
6:45am---NZD Retail Sales m/m
6:45am---NZD Core Retail Sales m/m
7:50am---JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m
8:00am---NZD Performance of Manufacturing Index
1:45pm---CHF Consumer Climate
2:00pm---EUR German GDP q/q (p)
2:00pm---EUR German CPI m/m (r)
2:45pm---EUR French GDP q/q (p)
5:00pm---CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
5:00pm---EUR Core CPI y/y
5:00pm---EUR GDP q/q (p)
5:00pm---EUR CPI y/y
6:30pm---AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
7:40pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30pm---CAD Manufacturing Shipments m/m
8:30pm---USD Empire State Business Conditions Index
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
9:00pm---USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
9:15pm---USD Capacity Utilization Rate
9:15pm---USD Industrial Production m/m
9:30pm---USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
10:00pm--USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
10:30pm--CAD BOC Spring Review

Friday [16-05-2008]
1:00am-----------USD NAHB Housing Market Index
6:45am-----------NZD PPI Input q/q
6:45am-----------NZD PPI Output q/q
7:50am-----------JPY GDP q/q (p)
7:50am-----------JPY GDP Deflator y/y (p)
12:30pm----------JPY Industrial Production m/m (r)
1:00pm-----------JPY Household Confidence
2:45pm-----------EUR French Nonfarm Employment q/q (p)
3:15pm-----------CHF Retail Sales y/y
4:00pm-----------EUR Italian Trade Balance
5:00pm-----------EUR Trade Balance
[Time Unknown]---AUD RBA Assistant Governor Debelle Speaks
8:30pm-----------CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
8:30pm-----------USD Building Permits
8:30pm-----------USD Housing Starts
10:00pm----------USD Consumer Sentiment (p)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Global Events Calendar [05-05-2008] - [09-05-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+08:00).

Before we go on with the Global Events Calendar, there are a few things to take note of for the week to come.

Monday [05-05-2008]
1) JPY - [Whole Day Event]>Holiday: Children's Day
2) GBP - [Whole Day Event]>Holiday: May Day
3) USD - [10:00pm]>Fed Holds TAF Auction

Tuesday [06-05-2008]
1) JPY - [Whole Day Event]>Holiday: Greenery Day Observed
2) USD - [08:30am]>Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks.
3) AUD - [12:30pm]>Interest Rate Statement(*They are looking to hold)
4) GBP - [04:30pm]>Industrial Production

Thursday [08-05-2008]
1) NZD - [06:45am]>Jobless Rate
2) AUD - [09:30am]>Jobless Rate
3) CHF - [01:45pm]>Jobless Rate
4) EUR - [02:00pm]>German Trade Balance
5) GBP - [07:00pm]>Interest Rate Statement[*They are looking to hold]
6) USD - [08:30pm]>Jobless Claims

Friday [09-05-2008]
1) CAD - [07:00pm]>Jobless Rate
2) CAD - [08:30pm]>Trade Balance
3) USD - [08:30pm]>Trade Balance

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [05-05-2008] - [09-05-2008]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [05-05-2008]
6:45am--------------NZD Labor Cost Index q/q
7:30am--------------AUD Services PMI
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Holiday: Children's Day
8:30am--------------AUD TDMI Inflation Gauge m/m
9:30am--------------AUD House Price Index q/q
11:00am-------------NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index
[Whole Day Event]---GBP Holiday: May Day
4:30pm--------------EUR Sentix Investor Confidence
[Time Unknown]------EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:50pm--------------CAD BOC Deputy Governor Jenkins Speaks
10:00pm-------------USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite
10:00pm-------------USD Fed Holds TAF Auction

Tuesday [06-05-2008]
[Whole Day Event]---JPY Holiday: Greenery Day Observed
8:30am--------------USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
9:30am--------------AUD Trade Balance
12:30pm-------------AUD Interest Rate Statement
1:45pm--------------CHF CPI m/m
4:00pm--------------EUR Services PMI (r)
4:30pm--------------GBP Services PMI
5:00pm--------------EUR PPI m/m
8:30pm--------------CAD Building Permits m/m
10:00pm-------------CAD Ivey PMI

Wednesday [07-05-2008]
7:01am---GBP Consumer Confidence Index
7:30am---AUD Construction PMI
2:45pm---EUR French Government Budget Balance
2:45pm---EUR French Trade Balance
4:30pm---GBP Industrial Production m/m
4:30pm---GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
5:00pm---EUR Retail Sales m/m
5:30pm---GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y
6:00pm---EUR German Factory Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Nonfarm Productivity q/q (p)
8:30pm---USD Unit Labor Costs q/q (p)
8:45pm---USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
10:00pm--USD Pending Home Sales m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [08-06-2008]
3:00am---USD Consumer Credit m/m
6:45am---NZD Unemployment Rate
6:45am---NZD Employment Change q/q
7:01am---USD NIESR GDP Estimate
9:30am---AUD Employment Change
9:30am---AUD Unemployment Rate
1:45pm---CHF Unemployment Rate
2:00pm---EUR German Trade Balance
6:00pm---EUR German Industrial Production m/m
7:00pm---GBP Interest Rate Statement
7:45pm---EUR Minimum Bid Rate
8:15pm---CAD Housing Starts
8:30pm---EUR ECB Press Conference
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD Wholesale Inventories m/m

Friday [09-05-2008]
9:30am---AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
1:00pm---JPY Leading Index m/m
2:45pm---EUR French Industrial Production m/m
7:00pm---CAD Employment Change
7:00pm---CAD Unemployment Rate
8:30pm---CAD Trade Balance
8:30pm---USD Trade Balance
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fortune Telling

Hello guys, something amusing: Here's a screen shot of the Saxo Chart, showing EURUSD plummeting down. Might happen (but VERY very unlikely to be a 1 day thing). Seems that SAXO might be going into fortune telling :)

Daily Market Update by Daily FX (24th April 2008)

Source: Daily FX

USD
After hitting a record low against the Euro on Tuesday, there has been little follow through selling in the US dollar, leaving many traders wondering whether this may be a pause before further losses or a potential bottom. Although we are long term dollar bears, the break of 1.60 is far from impressive. This indicates that there isn't much speculative interest in taking the Euro higher in the near term, especially as economic data and official comments start to turn against the Euro and in favor of the US dollar. Earlier this week we had better than expected US housing market numbers. We would not be surprised to also see a recovery in new home sales. Even though US durable goods will be pressured by the sales of furniture and electronics, Boeing's incredibly solid end of quarter earnings and their expectations of another strong year suggests that sales of non-defense aircraft could be firm. As for the Eurozone, we expect German business confidence to deteriorate materially (discussed in Euro section). Fed fund futures are currently pricing in an 82 percent chance of a quarter point rate cut next week with the remaining 18 percent probability in favor of no rate cut at all. This is a sharp departure from just a week ago when the market was pricing in a 76 percent chance of a 25bp cut and a 24 percent chance of a 50bp cut. The only reason for this dramatic shift in expectations is the increased inflationary pressures. A week ago, oil prices were trading at $113 a barrel and yesterday it hit an intraday high of $119.90 a barrel. The dollar should continue to recover for the rest of the week, but the party may end the following week when we have the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and non-farm payrolls due for release. We believe that the market may be under pricing the degree of Fed rate cuts because the problems in the US economy are far from over. Non-farm payrolls should continue to drop while consumer spending will probably slow, leaving the Federal Reserve with a lot of work ahead of them.

EUR
The Euro has failed to extend its gains beyond 1.60 and we believe that another day of losses may be in store for the single currency. More signs of weakness in the Eurozone economy are beginning to reveal themselves. Even though service sector PMI improved in the month of April, manufacturing sector PMI deteriorated. This suggests that German business confidence could have also decreased this month as indicated by the ZEW survey. A little watched report called the Belgium Business Sentiment Index also tends to have a strong correlation with German IFO (chart). The index fell to a 2.5 year low in the month of April with the drop being the steepest on record. A large decline in German business confidence would be exactly what the Euro needs for a more meaningful turn. Meanwhile ECB member Noyer backtracked the comments that he made yesterday, which drove the EUR/USD to a record high. He said that the market misinterpreted his words and that the ECB is not looking to hike interest rates. For the time being, don't expect them to lower rates either.

GBP
Over the next 2 trading days, the big action should be in the British pound. We are expecting retail sales tomorrow followed by the first quarter GDP report on Friday. The deterioration in the UK housing market and the UK economy in general will weigh on consumer spending, while the GDP numbers may be partially dependent upon how bad retail sales fared in March. Unfortunately the minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting failed to provide any clarity on how the central bank may vote at the next meeting because the committee was split 3 ways. Six of the nine members voted in favor of the 25bp rate cut, 2 members voted for no cut at all while 1 member voted for a 50bp cut. As a group, they were concerned about everything from growth to credit markets to inflation. Looking ahead, the only things that will shed more light on where the BoE stands would be tomorrow's retail sales report.

JPY
The Japanese Yen crosses were mixed today with USD/JPY rallying but many of the other yen crosses dipping despite a 42 point rally in the Dow. After breaking higher last Friday, there has not been much follow through in US equities, which leaves many traders nervous about whether risk appetite is really here to stay. The latest merchandise trade balance report was weaker than expected, but the surplus still increased last month. The strength of the Japanese Yen is beginning to take a toll on exports, particularly in the electronic components and machinery sector. Imports on the other hand rose 11 percent, mainly due to the rise in oil prices.

Daily Market Update by Daily FX (23rd April 2008)

Source: Daily FX

USD
It has been a record breaking day in the financial markets with the US dollar falling to a new all-time low and oil prices hitting a record high above $119 a barrel. When it comes to oil and the US dollar, it is difficult to determine which is the primary driver because the dollar's weakness pushes oil prices higher while oil prices hurts the outlook for the US economy. Although it can be argued that higher crude prices are inflationary, it is not that simple because the Federal Reserve cannot raise interest rates to combat inflation. With the market already pricing in only a quarter point rate cut, to forgo a rate cut completely would send a message to the markets that the Federal Reserve is not quite ready for. At this time, the Fed's bigger problem is the pressure that $5 gas prices may have on consumer spending and corporate profitability. The pocketbooks of US consumers are getting pinched by the day as prices rise globally. This morning, there have been reports that Mattel is raising toy prices and even the MTA (Metropolitan Transportation Authority) here in NY is planning to raise the price of alcohol, soda and snacks for the first the first time in 4 years; the price hike of 25 percent is by no means shallow. Housing market numbers were released this morning and they were not as bad as analysts had feared. The absolute number of existing homes sold was slightly more than expected even though the drop on a percentage basis was greater. House prices actually ticked higher which is a relief for the housing market even though that relief will probably be temporary. California just reported the highest level of mortgage defaults in 15 years, reflecting the severity of the problems in the US real estate market. Expect the US economy to get worse before it gets better.

EUR
The fourth time is the charm for the Euro as it finally pierces the 1.60 level against the US dollar. Despite slightly better than expected existing home sales in the US, a rebound in house prices, and news that the German Banking Association bailed out Duesseldorfer Hypothekenbank AG after a string of mortgage losses, the market refuses to give up its voracious appetite for Euros. This continual rise in inflationary pressures raises the risk of a rate hike from the European Central Bank. This morning, ECB member Noyer said that the central bank will do what is needed to control inflation, including raising interest rates. Although he tried to temper that comment by saying that rates are currently appropriate, the seed has been planted. Tomorrow's service and manufacturing PMI numbers will shed more light on how well the Eurozone economy is holding up given current market conditions. Interestingly enough, there are not as many option barriers according to the volatility smile at 1.60 as there was at 1.50. This suggests that extension may not be as high. When the Euro broke 1.50 it rallied another 144 pips on the very same day and then added 300 pips over the next few weeks with virtually no retracement. Therefore the power of the move above 1.60 will not be as strong as the move above 1.50. In fact, 1.60 could even be a near term top.

GBP
Fresh from yesterday's trading loss, on the back of rising criticism about BoE's GBP50 billion swap, the British Pound regained posture against the US Dollar, rallying by 150 pips. In light of the Royal Bank of Scotland's $24 billion sell of shares and the BoE's attempt to increase liquidity in order to boost the ailing housing market, speculations run rampant that the worst is yet to come for the once resilient UK economy. Today, Finance Minister Alistair Darling is set to meet with key mortgage lenders, in hopes of convincing them to cut costs of home loans and find ways of helping people refinance their mortgages. Investors eagerly await this month's central bank minutes set to release on Wednesday, in hopes of finding a silver lining, in terms of a future rate cut. As the economy trudges along, it remains to be seen what sorts of surprises the government pulls out of its black hat, but it can be assumed that it will be awhile before the UK economy start chugging smoothly.

JPY
Fresh from yesterday's trading loss, on the back of rising criticism about BoE's The Japanese Yen continued its lead against the US Dollar, as investors ushered in positive economic release from the world's second largest economy. Supermarket sales figures rose for the second month in a row, due to rising food costs, causing investors to remain optimistic about future growth prospects. With Democratic Party Japan pushing for higher minimum wages, and the retention of the gasoline tax cut beyond April, expect consumer spending to recover, which could help Japan revive at a quicker pace than expected. Looking ahead, Merchandise Trade Balance and CPI figures should help the Yen gain against major currencies.

Last minute addition to the Global Events Calendar...

Hello everyone,

[21-04-2008], at 4:00pm (Singapore Time). This is a last minute addition to the Global Events Calendar.

GBP - [BOE Special Liquidity Announced]
*Description - The Bank of England (BOE) will issue a statement regarding their "Special Liquidity Scheme" designed to allow banks to swap temporarily their high quality mortgage-backed and other securities for UK Treasury Bills.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

Analysis on 4 Majors

I had done the weekly analysis on the 4 majors based on my basic knowledge about Forex.
If you made money for the week based on my analysis, no need to thank me cos you are skilled.
However if you lost because of me, so be it, you are suay, furthermore I am not bothered with your loss.
Remember to look out for major news releases.
Trade with care and criteria.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is moving in a closing wedge in weekly, daily, hourly.
the pair made a upward move last week and showed a loss of momentum last fri.

Weekly Resistance @ 2.0069, 2.0204, 2.0398
Weekly Support @ 1.9586, 1.9294
Daily Resistance @ 1.9998, 2.0062, 2.0221
Daily Support @ 1.9730, 1.9602
Hourly Resistance@ 1.9962, 1.9998
Hourly Support @ 1.9879, 1.9765

USDCHF

On weekly, USDCHF is moving in a downtrend channel for the past few weeks.
On Daily, the pair is forming a closing wedge.
On hourly, the pair made a bump and run on thursday, and another bump and run of friday.
Weekly Resistance @1.0282, 1.0542
Weekly Support @ 0.9925, 0.9916
Daily Resistance @ 1.0282, 1.0345
Daily Support @ 0.9936, 0.9860
Hourly Resistance @ 1.0245, 1.0282
Hourly Support @ 1.0093, 1.0040

USDJPY

USDJPY has been moving in a downward channel for past weeks.
Last fri, the pair made a strong up move and retraced.
Weekly Resistance @ 104.63, 108.23
Weekly Support @ 100.72, 99.83
Daily Resistance @ 104.63
Daily Support @ 102.25, 100.66
Hourly Resistance @ 104.62
Hourly Support @ 102.83, 102.25

EURUSD Hourly

EURUSD made a strong down move last friday but unable to clear 1.5710 and retraced.
Strong Resistance @ 1.5865, 1.5983
Strong support @ 1.5710, 1.5670

EURUSD Daily

EURUSD set historical height last thurs @1.5983 and came down last friday.
Strong Resistance @1.5955, 1.5983
Strong Support @ 1.5707

EURUSD Weekly

EURUSD is moving within a closing wedge for the past few weeks and set historical high @1.5983
Srong Resistance @1.5983
Support @ 1.5671, 1.5491

Global Events Calendar [21-04-2008] - [25-04-2008]

*Time displayed is based on Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)
**ForexNewsPaper.blogspot.com will not be responsible over the accuracy of information.

A few things to be a little careful of:

1) GBP [MPC Meeting Minutes] - On [23-04-2008] at 4:30pm.

2) USD [Unemployment Claims] - On [24-04-2008] at 08:30pm.

3) AUD [Holiday) - On [25-04-2008], it will be a whole day event, Anzac Day.

Peace and trade safely everyone...

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [21-04-2008] - [25-04-2008]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [21-04-2008]
7:01am---GBP Rightmove House Price Index m/m
7:50am---JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m
3:15pm---CHF PPI m/m
4:00pm---EUR IMF Press Conference
5:00pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Tuesday [22-04-2008]
1:30am---USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
2:15pm---CHF Trade Balance
7:00pm---GBP MPC Member Besley Speaks
10:00pm--USD Existing Home Sales
10:00pm--USD House Price Index q/q
10:00pm--USD Richmond Fed Index

Wednesday [23-04-2008]
7:50am---JPY Trade Balance
2:45pm---EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
3:30pm---EUR German Manufacturing PMI (p)
3:30pm---EUR German Services PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR Manufacturing PMI (p)
4:00pm---EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m
4:00pm---EUR Services PMI (p)
4:30pm---GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30pm---GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals
5:00pm---EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [24-04-2008]
1:00am---GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks
7:50am---JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m
7:50am---JPY CSPI y/y
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index
4:00pm---EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index
4:00pm---EUR Current Account
4:30pm---GBP Retail Sales m/m
6:00pm---GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders
8:30pm---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30pm---USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30pm---USD Unemployment Claims
10:00pm--USD New Home Sales
10:00pm--USD Fed General Counsel Alvarez Speaks

Friday [25-04-2008]
[Whole Day Event]---AUD Holiday: Anzac Day
7:50am--------------JPY Core CPI y/y
7:50am--------------JPY Core Tokyo CPI y/y
2:00pm--------------EUR German Import Price Index m/m
4:00pm--------------CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks
4:00pm--------------EUR M3 Money Supply y/y
4:30pm--------------GBP GDP q/q (p)
4:30pm--------------GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
10:00pm-------------USD Consumer Sentiment (r)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Leeched from Forexnewspaper.blogspot.com...

Harlow Faggots!!!

Hahaha!!! Leeched this from forexnewspaper.blogspot.com :P Hahaha!!!

Enjoy!!!

Regards,
Ash Ariffin


[Part 1 of 3]



[Part 2 of 3]



[Part 3 of 3]

Global Evetns Calendar [14-04-2008] - [18-04-2008]

*Time displayed for the Global Events Calendar is based on Singapore Time (GMT+8:00)
**[Forexnewspaper.blogspot.com] is not responsible over the accuracy of information.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Global Events Calendar [14-04-2008] - [18-04-2008]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday [14-04-2008]
7:50am---JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
4:30pm---GBP PPI Input m/m
4:30pm---GBP PPI Output m/m
5:00pm---EUR Industrial Production m/m
8:30pm---USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30pm---USD Retail Sales m/m
10:00pm--USD Business Inventories m/m

Tuesday [15-04-2008]
3:15am---USD Fed Governor Warsh Speaks
5:30am---EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
7:01am---GBP RICS House Price Balance
7:01am---GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
2:45pm---EUR French CPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP Core CPI y/y
4:30pm---GBP DCLG House Price Index y/y
4:30pm---GBP RPI y/y
5:00pm---EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00pm---EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
8:30pm---USD Empire State Business Conditions Index
8:30pm---USD PPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Core PPI m/m
9:00pm---USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

Wednesday [16-08-2008]
1:00am---USD NAHB Housing Market Index
2:00pm---EUR German CPI m/m (r)
4:00pm---EUR Italian Trade Balance
4:30pm---GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus q/y
4:30pm---GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30pm---GBP Unemployment Rate
5:00pm---EUR CPI y/y (r)
8:30pm---USD Core CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Building Permits
8:30pm---USD CPI m/m
8:30pm---USD Housing Starts
9:15pm---USD Capacity Utilization Rate
9:15pm---USD Industrial Production m/m
10:30pm--USD Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday [17-04-2008]
12:30am----------USD Philadelphia Fed President Plosser Speaks
2:00am-----------USD Beige Book
12:30pm----------JPY Industrial Production m/m (r)
3:15pm-----------CHF Retail Sales y/y
4:00pm-----------EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
5:00pm-----------CHF ZEW Expectations
5:00pm-----------EUR Trade Balance
8:30pm-----------USD Unemployment Claims
9:45pm-----------USD Fed Vice Chairman Kohn Speaks
10:00pm----------USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00pm----------USD Leading Index m/m
[Time Unknown]---CHF SNB Chairman Roth Speaks

Friday [18-04-2008]
2:00am---USD Dallas Fed President Fisher Speaks
1:00pm---JPY Household Confidence
2:00pm---EUR German PPI m/m
4:30pm---GBP M4 Money Supply m/m
4:30pm---GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USD/CHF

USD/CHF Daily Chart

USD/CHF H1 Chart

A very nice and defined symmetrical triangle has formed on the daily chart, with prices still in the middle, it has been sideways for quite some time now. Similarly to the other currencies, it broke to the downside a couple of days ago, but slipped back into the wedge, thus forming a new support line for the triangle.

Hourly chart shows a similar movement to the USD/JPY. Again, it didn't managed to form a higher high, and it has now gone sideways. Last couple of days have been pretty volatile for most of the pairs, so trade with caution.

GBPUSD

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD H1 Chart

GBP/USD daily had a descending triangle that was broken this week, but rebounded back. The last 2 days of trading has been a fight to see whether buyers or sellers would win. So far there's no clear direction yet.

On the hourly chart, a falling wedge is formed. The market closed at the support of 1.9719 though, and even if it can break up the nice resistance line (purple), we would want to be more cautious of going long, until more criteria is observed.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY H1 Chart

On the Daily chart, it looks like a bear flag has formed, and the market is trying to test the support of the flag. If it succeeds, there might be quite a big movement downwards. Last week, it has actually broken a support but it shot back up into the bear flag the next day. Traders who did not take their profits would have been stopped.

On the hourly chart, the market could not create a higher high, and started a pretty strong downwards move again. It then went into a tight range before markets closed for the week. G7 meeting is held on Saturday, so traders might want to see the outcome of the meeting before trading.

EUR/USD 13th April 2008

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD H1 Chart

This week, EUR/USD rallied to a new historic high of 1.5913 but failed to hold, and collapsed almost 180 pips within the next few hours. On the daily chart, a very nice ascending triangle has formed.

On the hourly chart, there seems to be a head and shoulders forming, there is strong resistance at the 1.5855 level. It did not manage to form a higher high, and went sideways for a couple of hours before the markets closed on Friday. A nice support line (purple) has formed. It would be interesting to see if the markets can break this intermediate support line.

Market Outlook for the week

Hola! This is the first week that Commenciante traders will share their insights about the Forex markets, we will start off with the 4 major currencies, and will probably look into other pairs at a later time. If there are any interesting setups during the week we will try to post it up as well!

Have fun trading!
J

Woo Hoo!

First post from me...

Reporting my existance in Commerciante Traders Brotherhood...

Glad to be in the Brotherhood

Alright lets rock and roll people!

Brotherhood

I am in the brotherhood

USDCHF Daily Chart

USDCHF Hourly Chart

News:
6.30pm Leading Index m/m Actual ___ Forecast 1.60 Previous 1.65

USDCHF Daily:

Market has came down a lot from the 1.2xxx level to the current levels of 0.99xx. There was an interesting bounce from last week, where the market didn't create a higher high, and plunged about 300 pips from Tuesday - Wednesday. It has taken a breather on Thursday, forming a little doji (take note its almost a piercing line on the Saxo Charts

USDCHF H1:

On the hourly charts, there is a pretty nice support for the last 2 days. It has entered the consolidation or sideways market now, and no strategy (except the GR technique) will work. Also forming a small closing wedge. Awaiting breakout...